He is now 26 years old and has six seasons on his NFL resume with 1,000 or more receiving yards.Įvans has averaged 9.3 targets, 5.1 receptions, 80.7 receiving yards, and 14 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in 90 active games since 2014. Evans’ rookie year back in 2014 coincided with wide receiver Vincent Jackson’s last season with 1,000 or more receiving yards. The arrival of future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady is unlikely to change that. The Case for Mike EvansĮric: Mike Evans has been the focal point of the Buccaneers offense his entire career. Since we’re receiving no discount on the volatile Evans in an offense that is going to run more sustainably and efficiently by Tom Brady as opposed to the Jameis Winstons and Ryan Fitzpatricks of the past, give me the high-floor, ascending talent in Chris Godwin 10 times out of 10. Howard or Cameron Brate earning a big enough piece of the pie to squash our hope of Chris Godwin becoming Florida’s Julian Edelman.Īt the time of writing, Chris Godwin is going at 2.10 in 12-team leagues while Mike Evans is going two spots later at 3.01. Between Bruce Arians’ tendency to downplay the tight end in his offense, and the Brady-led New England Patriots ranking dead last with a 9.0% tight end target share in 2019, I don’t see Gronkowski, O.J. I certainly don’t want to ignore the 79 touchdowns that Gronk has scored through his time playing with Tom Brady, but I don’t think he has the ability to stay on the field for enough time this season to make a difference in the overall outlook of either receiver. The elephant in the room here -an elephant that would likely take targets from Godwin as opposed to Evans- is Rob Gronkowski. Winning in the same area of the field (142 targets ≤ 20 air yards in 2019), Edelman has absorbed 150+ targets in each of the three seasons he has played all 16 games. It may be an easy comparison to make, but the low-hanging fruit tastes just as good the stars are aligned for Chris Godwin to become the 42-year-old quarterback’s new (more athletic) Julian Edelman. Maybe the “ Mike Evans is a great tight end” trope does have a little merit. If last season is any indication, that won’t be a problem Godwin’s 7.1 yards after the catch per reception ranked him seventh, while Evans’ 4.3 YPC/rec ranked 75th, behind the likes of Greg Olsen, Anthony Miller, and Jacob Hollister. More targets would clearly be a boost to raw stats, but how can we be sure that an increased target share is going to make a large difference, especially if Mike Evans were to receive an equal boost in share (even if I don’t believe that’s the case)? We can look at yards after the catch to surmise whether or not Godwin could compensate for his relative lack of downfield targets, where 6’5”, 230-pound Evans makes his paychecks. Three-Year Trend for Short & Intermediate Usage Year With Brady’s propensity to get the ball into his receiver’s hands and let them eat up yardage, Godwin’s 120 2019 targets just took a shot in the arm. In 2019, Mike Evans’ and Godwin’s usage at or under 20 yards down the field came to a head, with Evans’ usage in that area dropping by 19% while Godwin’s same-area usage rose 23%. After finishing 2019 as the overall WR2 despite missing two games, Godwin has been gifted Tom Brady, whose wide receivers have historically won in the short and intermediate of the field -an area that the 24-year-old pass-catcher has been thriving in for the prior two seasons. Justin: Uncertainty at the quarterback position turned into a giant net-positive for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Friday, March 20th and with it, Chris Godwin’s fantasy outlook strengthened. In this debate, Justin Edwards will argue for Chris Godwin, while Eric Moody takes the side of Mike Evans. BetMGM + 4for4 Sub Deal (Free Betting Subscription)Ĭhris Godwin and Mike Evans are being drafted as WR6 and WR7, respectively, leaving boards in the second-to-third round depending on site and format.VividPicks + 4for4 Sub Deal (Free Subscription).
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